Unyaka ka-2022 kungaba unyaka omkhulu kubakhiqizi abatshala imali kubuchwepheshe futhi babhekane nezinselele ezimbili ezinkulu zomkhakha: ukuntuleka kwabasebenzi kanye neketango lokuhlinzeka elingazinzile.Getty Images
Monthly Chris Kuehl, International Economic Analyst for Manufacturers and Manufacturers Association.Umongameli kanye noMongameli we-Armada Corporate Intelligence, ozinze eLawrence, Kan., ngokubambisana noMorris, Nelson & Associates, Leavenworth, Kan., ukwethula i-Armada Strategic Intelligence System ( I-ASIS).Kuyo, u-Kuehl nethimba lakhe baveza ingxenye ehlukene yokukhiqiza ethinta ibhizinisi lokwenziwa kwensimbi.Cishe zonke lezi zimboni zibe nohambo olude phakathi kuka-2020 no-2021.Ibhizinisi lehlile ekuqaleni kuka-2020 ngezizathu ezisobala, okwalandelwa i-rebound eqhubekayo, nakuba intengantenga, njengoba amaketanga okuhlinzeka emhlabeni wonke ebuya.Eminye imisebenzi yokwenziwa kwensimbi izophuma yonke, kanti eminye ayinamandla ngendlela engaba namandla ngayo—inqobo nje uma inezinto kanye nabantu abayidingayo ukuze umsebenzi wenziwe ( bheka Umfanekiso 1).
"[Sibona] kuqhubeka izitayela eziqinile zesidingo sesikhathi eside ezimakethe zokugcina esizihlinzekayo, kanye nentshisekelo ekhulayo emisebenzini yethu ezinkampanini eziningi," kusho u-Bob Kamphuis, uSihlalo/u-CEO/uMongameli we-Contracts Manufacturing MEC enkulumeni yakhe. ingqungquthela yekota nabatshalizimali ngoNovemba.” Nokho, izingqinamba zenkampani yethu yokuhlinzeka ngempahla zibangele ukubambezeleka kokukhiqiza kwakamuva.”Lokhu akubangelwa ukushoda kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kuka-MEC, kodwa kungenxa yokushoda kwamakhasimende ka-MEC.
U-Kamphuis wengeze ngokuthi ukuhlinzeka izinsiza zika-MEC eMayville, eWisconsin nakuyo yonke ingxenye esempumalanga ye-US ngochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla - okuhlanganisa ne-raw material supply chain - "kubangele ukuphazamiseka okuncane kuphela.Lokhu kusho ukuthi uma amakhasimende ethu esekwazi ukukhuphula sizobe sesilungile uma sesidayisa.”
Njengabakhiqizi abakhulu benkontileka e-US (futhi bakleliswe ngokuphindaphindiwe ku-#1 ohlwini lwe-FABRICATOR's FAB 40 Top Manufacturers), u-MEC usebenzela cishe yonke imboni yesibikezelo sanyanga zonke se-ASIS sika-Kuehl, futhi iningi lala mabhizinisi lingase lihlobane nolwazi lwe-MEC.
Ukukhiqiza insimbi yase-US imboni yokukhiqiza eboshelwe ekuphazamisekeni kwe-supply chain.Imboni iyaqhubeka nokudonsa, ilangazelela ukuqala.Lokho donsa cishe kuzoqina ngokwenyuka kwezindleko zengqalasizinda, ngenxa yomthetho osanda kuphasiswa eWashington.Global supply amaketanga kufanele abambe, futhi kuze kube kwenzeka, ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali izoqhubeka.Ngakho konke lokhu engqondweni, u-2022 kuzoba unyaka wamathuba.
Umbiko we-ASIS udonsa ulwazi ohlelweni lwe-St. Louis Fed's Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) ngesithombe esikhulu, idatha yokukhiqizwa kwezimboni ehlanganisa kokubili ukukhiqiza okuhlala isikhathi eside nokungahlali isikhathi eside. Yabe isingena emikhakheni eyahlukene ehlobene nobuchwepheshe bokwenziwa kwensimbi: the primary metals sector ehlinzeka ngezinto zokusetshenziswa kubakhiqizi bensimbi, yona enikezela izingxenye ezimbonini ezahlukahlukene.
Abakhiqizi ngokwabo bakhona ezinhlobonhlobo zezigaba ezisetshenziswa uhulumeni ukuhlukanisa abakhiqizi, okuhlanganisa imikhiqizo yensimbi eyenziwe, isigaba esihlanganisa konke esihlanganisa izinsimbi zokwakha kanye nezakhiwo;ukukhiqizwa kukabhayela, amathangi nemikhumbi;kanye nalabo abahlinzeka ngezinsizakalo kweminye imikhakha.umenzi wenkontileka.Umbiko we-ASIS awuzibandakanyi zonke izindawo ezikhavwe abakhiqizi bensimbi - akukho mbiko owenzayo - kodwa uhlanganisa izindawo zokuthengisa eziningi zeshidi lensimbi, amapuleti namashubhu akhiqizwayo ezweni. kulokho imboni engabhekana nakho ngo-2022.
Ngokombiko ka-Okthoba we-ASIS (osekelwe kudatha ka-September), abakhiqizi basemakethe engcono kakhulu kunokukhiqiza iyonke.Imishini (kuhlanganise nemishini yezolimo), i-aerospace, kanye nemikhiqizo yensimbi eyenziwe, ikakhulukazi, kungenzeka ibone ukukhula okukhulu kulo lonke. 2022—kodwa lokhu kukhula kuzokwenzeka endaweni yebhizinisi ethintwa ukuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain.
Ukuqagela kombiko kokukhiqizwa kwezimboni okuhlala isikhathi eside nokungahlali isikhathi eside kusikisela lokhu kulinganisa (bona uMdwebo 2).Isibikezelo se-ASIS sikaSepthemba (esikhishwe ngo-Okthoba) sibonise ukuthi ukukhiqizwa sekukonke kwehle ngephesenti lephuzu engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, kubambekile, futhi ngemva kwalokho. yehle ngamaphesenti ambalwa ekuqaleni kuka-2023.
Umkhakha wezinsimbi eziyisisekelo uzokhula kakhulu ngo-2022 (bheka uMdwebo 3). Lokhu kuwubonisa kahle umsebenzi webhizinisi owehla kakhulu echungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, inqobo nje uma abakhiqizi nabanye bengaqhubeka nokwenyusa amanani.
Umfanekiso 1 Lesi sifinyezo siyingxenye yesibikezelo esinemininingwane eyengeziwe esikhishwe i-Armada's Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) ngoNovemba, esibonisa izibikezelo zezimboni ezithile.Amagrafu akulesi sihloko avela kwisibikezelo se-ASIS esikhishwe ngo-Okthoba (kusetshenziswa idatha kaSepthemba), ngakho-ke izinombolo zihluke kancane.Ngaphandle kwalokho, imibiko ye-ASIS ka-Okthoba noNovemba yomibili ikhomba ukuguquguquka nethuba ngo-2022.
"Kusuka ensimbi kuye ku-nickel, i-aluminium, ithusi nezinye izinsimbi ezinomthelela embonini, sisabona ukuphakama kwezikhathi zonke," kubhala u-Kuhl. "Kodwa-ke, [ekwindla ka-2021] kubonakale ukwehla kwezintengo zezimpahla eziningi njengoba amaketanga okuhlinzeka aqala ukukhuphuka. thola… Abanye abathengi babike ukuthi babona ukutholakala komkhiqizo okuthuthukisiwe.Kepha sekukonke, ukuhlinzekwa komhlaba wonke kuhlala kunovalo. ”
Kusukela ngesikhathi sokushicilela, i-United States ne-European Union baxoxisane ngesivumelwano esisha lapho amanani entengo yensimbi ne-aluminium evela e-European Union ka-25% no-10%, ngokulandelana, azohlala engashintshi. I-US izovumela inani elilinganiselwe lokungeniswa kwensimbi ngaphandle kokukhokhiswa okuvela eYurophu.Kusazobonakala ukuthi lokhu kuzoba nomthelela muni ezintengo zempahla ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.Kunoma ikuphi, iningi lababukeli bemboni abacabangi ukuthi isidingo sensimbi sizoncipha. noma nini maduze.
Kuzo zonke izimboni ezihlinzekwa ngabakhiqizi, imboni yezimoto iyona eguquguquka kakhulu (bheka uMdwebo 4) .Imboni yehle kakhulu engxenyeni yokuqala neyesibili ka-2021 ngaphambi kokuba iphinde ibe namandla ekupheleni konyaka.Ngokwezibikezelo ze-ASIS, lo mfutho izoqhubeka nokuqina engxenyeni yokuqala neyesibili ka-2022, ngaphambi kokuthi yehle futhi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi onyakeni.Sekukonke, imboni izoba sesimweni esingcono, kodwa kuzoba uhambo.Okuningi kokuntengantenga kubangelwa ukushoda komhlaba wonke. ama-microchips.
"Izimboni ezithembele kakhulu kuma-chipsets zibhekene nesimo esibuthakathaka kakhulu," kubhala uKuhl ngoSepthemba." Iningi labahlaziyi manje libona ikota yesibili ka-2022 njengenkathi lapho uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-chipset luzojwayela kakhulu."
Izinombolo ezishintshayo esibikezelweni sezimoto zibonisa ukuthi isimo sishubile kangakanani.Izibikezelo zangaphambili bezithi imboni yezimoto ihlale izinzile ngokukhula okuncane okubalulekile.Ngesikhathi sokubhala, i-ASIS ibikezela ukukhula okunempilo kakhulu ezingxenyeni ezimbalwa zokuqala, okulandelwa ukwehla ngokuhamba kwesikhathi onyakeni, okungenzeka kube umphumela wokunikezwa okungahambisani.Futhi, kubuyela emuva kuma-microchips nezinye izingxenye ezithengiwe.Lapho efika, ukukhiqiza kuphinda kuqhubeke kuze kube yilapho uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka luvimba futhi, lubambezela ukukhiqiza.
Umkhakha wezomkhathi uthuthuka ngokushesha.Njengoba uCool abhala ngoSepthemba, “Umbono wemboni yezokundiza ubukeka umuhle kakhulu, unyukela ngasekuqaleni kuka-2022 futhi uyaqhubeka nokuba phezulu unyaka wonke.Lesi ngesinye semibono emihle embonini yonkana.”
I-ASIS ibikezela ukukhula kwaminyaka yonke okungaphezu kwama-22% phakathi kuka-2020 no-2021—okungeyona into engavamile uma kucatshangelwa indlela imboni eyabhekana nayo ekuqaleni kwalolu bhubhane (bheka uMdwebo 5). Noma kunjalo, i-ASIS ibikezela ukuthi ukukhula kuzoqhubeka ngo-2022, kube nenzuzo enkulu ekuqaleni. amakota amabili.Ekupheleni konyaka, umbiko ubikezela ukuthi imboni yezamkhathi izokhula amanye ama-22%.Ingxenye yokukhula iqhutshwa ukwanda kwempahla yomoya.Izinkampani zezindiza nazo zengeza umthamo, ikakhulukazi e-Asia.
Lesi sigaba sihlanganisa izinto zokukhanyisa, izinto zasendlini, nezingxenye ezihlukahlukene zikagesi ezihlobene nokusatshalaliswa kwamandla.Izinkampani ezisebenzela lezi zimakethe ze-niche zibhekene nesimo esifanayo: kunesidingo kodwa akukho ukunikezwa, futhi ukucindezeleka kokwehla kwamandla emali kuqhubeka njengoba amanani entengo enyuka.Izibikezelo ze-ASIS zokuthi ibhizinisi lizokhula. engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, bese yehla kakhulu, futhi ibe isicaba ekupheleni konyaka (bheka uMdwebo 6).
Njengoba uKuhl abhala, “Izinto ezibalulekile ezifana nama-microchips zisashoda.I-Copper, nokho, ayizange ibe sematheni njengezinye izinsimbi, "nezela ngokuthi amanani ethusi akhuphuke ngo-41% unyaka nonyaka kuze kube ngoSepthemba 2021.
Lesi sigaba sihlanganisa izinto zokukhanyisa nezinsimbi zamashidi ezisetshenziswa kakhulu ezakhiweni zezentengiselwano, imboni ehlaselwa amathrendi abanzi endaweni yokusebenza.Amathuba okwakha ahlobene nokukhiqiza, ezokuthutha, indawo yokugcina impahla kanye nokunakekelwa kwezempilo maningi, kodwa ezinye izindawo zokwakha zentengiso, okuhlanganisa izakhiwo zamahhovisi, ziyancipha.” Ukwakhiwa kabusha kwebhizinisi kuhamba kancane njengoba ukuvulwa kabusha kanye nokuqala kabusha komsebenzi kuthathe isikhathi eside kunobekulindelekile,” kubhala uKuhl.
Umfanekiso 2 Ukukhula ekukhiqizweni kwezimboni kukonke, okuhlanganisa ukukhiqizwa kwezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside nezingahlali isikhathi eside, cishe kuzohlala kuthobile kuwo wonke u-2022. Ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kwezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside, okuhlanganisa ukwenziwa kwensimbi, kungenzeka kudlule ukukhiqizwa okubanzi, noma kunjalo.
Imboni ihlanganisa ukukhiqizwa kwemishini yezolimo kanye neminye imikhakha emincane eminingi, futhi kusukela ngoSepthemba 2021, ijika lokukhula kwemboni lingelinye eligqame kakhulu ku-ASIS (bona Umfanekiso 7).” Imboni yemishini kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokukhula okumangalisayo. indlela ngezizathu ezintathu,” kubhala uKuhl.Okokuqala, izitolo, amafekthri kanye nabahlanganisi babambezele i-2020 capex, ngakho manje sebeyakhuphuka.Okwesibili, iningi labantu lilindele ukuthi amanani enyuke, ngakho izinkampani zifuna ukuthenga imishini ngaphambi kwalokho.Okwesithathu, kunjalo. , ukushoda kwabasebenzi kanye nokuphusha kwemishini nokushintshashintsha kuyo yonke imikhakha yezokukhiqiza, ezokuthutha, ezokuthutha, neminye imikhakha yezomnotho.
"Izindleko zezolimo nazo ziyakhula," kusho uKull, "njengoba isidingo sokudla emhlabeni wonke sidala amathuba amakhulu okukhula kwamapulazi okuhweba."
Umugqa wokuthambekela wokwenziwa kwensimbi ubonisa isilinganiso, ezingeni lenkampani ngayinye, elincike kakhulu ekuxubeni kwamakhasimende esitolo.Abakhiqizi abaningi abasizi nje kuphela imikhakha eminingi, kodwa bangamabhizinisi amancane anamakhasimende ambalwa ashayela ingxenye enkulu yemali engenayo. Ikhasimende elikhulu liye eningizimu, futhi izimali zefekthri zaba nethonya elikhulu.
Kuzo zonke izinto ezibhekwayo, umugqa wesitayela wehle cishe kuzo zonke ezinye izimboni ekuqaleni kuka-2020, kodwa hhayi kakhulu. supply chain.Nokho, kusukela ngo-April 2022, i-ASIS ilindele ukubona izinzuzo ezithile eziphawulekayo njengoba amavolumu akhula (bona Umfanekiso 8).
U-Kuehl uchaze imboni ngo-2022 ebhekana nokuphazamiseka kochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwezimoto kanye nokushoda okubanzi kwama-microchips nezinye izakhi. Kodwa abakhiqizi bazophinde bahlomule ngokukhula kwe-aerospace, ubuchwepheshe, futhi ikakhulukazi ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwebhizinisi emishinini nasekusebenzeni okuzenzakalelayo. Naphezu kwezinselelo, ukukhula imboni yokukhiqiza izinsimbi ngo-2022 ibukeka iyinhle kakhulu.
“Enye yezinto eziza kuqala kithi ukugcina nokwandisa isizinda sabasebenzi bethu abanamakhono ukuze usisize sibone amathuba ethu okukhula.Silindele ukuthi ukuthola abantu abalungile kuzoqhubeka nokuba yinto eza kuqala esikhathini esizayo esibonakalayo ezindaweni zethu eziningi Izinselele.Amaqembu ethu akwa-HR asebenzisa amasu ahlukahlukene okudala, futhi njengenkampani sizoqhubeka nokutshala imali kumishini eshintshashintshayo, engasakazwa kabusha nobuchwepheshe.”
U-MEC's Kamphuis wenze ukuphawula kubatshalizimali ekuqaleni kukaNovemba, wengeza ngokuthi inkampani yenze imali efinyelela ku-$40 million ngezindleko ezinkulu endaweni yayo entsha engu-450,000-square-foot ngo-2021 kuphela.
Okuhlangenwe nakho kuka-MEC kubonisa amathrendi embonini emikhulu.Manje kunanini ngaphambili, abakhiqizi badinga umthamo oguquguqukayo obavumela ukuthi bakhuphuke ngokushesha futhi baphendule ekungaqinisekini.Umgomo ukhuphukela ekukhuphuleni isivinini somsebenzi, kusukela esicashuni sokuqala ukuya esikhumulweni semikhumbi.
Ubuchwepheshe buyaqhubeka nokuqhubekisela phambili imboni phambili, kodwa izithiyo ezimbili zenza ukukhula kube yinselele: ukuntuleka kwabasebenzi kanye noxhaxha lwempahla olungalindelekile.Izitolo ezizulazula ngempumelelo zombili zizobona igagasi lamathuba okukhiqiza ngo-2022 nangale kwalokho.
U-Tim Heston, Umhleli Omkhulu e-FABRICATOR, uye wahlanganisa imboni yokwenziwa kwensimbi kusukela ngo-1998, waqala umsebenzi wakhe nge-Welding Magazine ye-American Welding Society. Ujoyine abasebenzi be-FABRICATOR ngo-Okthoba 2007.
I-FABRICATOR iwumagazini ohamba phambili embonini yokwenziwa kwensimbi eNyakatho Melika.Lo magazini uhlinzeka ngezindaba, izihloko zezobuchwepheshe kanye nemilando yamacala eyenza abakhiqizi bakwazi ukwenza imisebenzi yabo ngendlela egculisayo.I-FABRICATOR ibisebenzela imboni kusukela ngo-1970.
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Jabulela ukufinyelela okugcwele kuhlelo lwedijithali Lombiko Wokwengeza ukuze ufunde ukuthi ukukhiqiza okungeziwe kungasetshenziswa kanjani ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukusebenza kahle kanye nokukhulisa inzuzo.
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Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-17-2022